Energy Scenario | NOTES | ECETOTAL

Table of contents

  • Energy Scenario: Classification of Energy Sources
  • Energy resources (Conventional and nonconventional)
  • Energy needs of India, and energy consumption patterns.
  • Worldwide Potentials of these sources.
  • Energy and its environmental impacts.

ENERGY SCENARIO

 

INTRODUCTION

Any physical activity in this world, whether carried out by human beings or by nature, is caused due to flow of energy in one form or the other. The word ‘energy’ itself is derived from the Greek word ‘Energon, which means ‘in work or ‘work content’. The work output depends on the energy input. Energy is one of the major inputs for the economic development of any country. In the case of developing countries, the energy sector assumes critical importance because of the ever-increasing energy needs requiring huge investments to meet them. 

Energy can be classified into several types based on the following criteria:

  • Primary and Secondary energy
  • Commercial and Non-commercial energy
  • Renewable and Non-Renewable energy
  • Conventional and Non-conventional energy

Primary and Secondary Energy

Primary energy sources are those that are either found or stored in nature. Common primary energy sources are coal, oil, natural gas, and biomass (such as wood). Other primary energy sources available include nuclear energy from radioactive substances, thermal energy stored in the earth's interior, and potential energy due to the earth's gravity.

Primary energy sources are costly converted in industrial utilities into secondary energy sources; for example, coal, oil or gas converted into steam and electricity. Primary energy can also be used directly. Some energy sources have non-energy uses, for example, coal or natural gas can be used as a feedstock in fertilizer plants.



Commercial Energy and Non-Commercial Energy


Commercial Energy

 The energy sources that are available in the market for a definite price are known as commercial energy. By far the most important forms of commercial energy are electricity, coal and refined petroleum products. Commercial energy forms the basis of industrial, agricultural, transport and commercial development in the modern world. In industrialized countries, commercialized fuels are the predominant source not only for economic production but also for many household tasks of the general population. Examples: Electricity, lignite, coal, oil, natural gas etc.

Non-Commercial Energy

The energy sources that are not available in the commercial market for a price are classified as non-commercial energy. Non-commercial energy sources include fuels such as firewood, cattle dung and agricultural wastes, which are traditionally gathered, and not bought at a price used especially in rural households. These are also called traditional fuels. Non-commercial energy is often ignored in energy accounting. Example: Firewood, agro waste in rural areas; solar energy for water heating, electricity generation, for drying grain, fish and fruits; animal power for transport, threshing, lifting water for irrigation, crushing sugarcane; wind energy for lifting water and electricity generation.

Conventional and Non Conventional energy resources

Conventional energy resources

Conventional Energy which is being traditionally used for many decades and was in common use around the oil crisis of 1973 are called conventional energy resources, e.g., fossil fuel, nuclear and hydro resources.

Non-conventional energy

Non-conventional energy resources which are considered for large–scale use after the oil crisis of 1973, are called non-conventional energy sources, e.g., solar, wind, biomass, etc

Energy Consumption and Standard Of Living

The energy consumption of a nation can be broadly divided into the following areas or sectors depending on energy-related activities. These can be further subdivided into subsectors:

  • Domestic sector (houses and offices including commercial buildings)
  • Transportation sector
  • Agriculture sector
  • Industry sector

Consumption of a large amount of energy in a country indicates increased activities in these sectors. This may imply better comforts at home due to the use of various appliances, better transport facilities and more agricultural and industrial production. All of this amount to a better quality of life. Therefore, the per capita energy consumption of a country is an index of the standard of living or prosperity (i.e. income) of the people of the country.

Global Primary Energy Reserves

Coal

The proven global coal reserve was estimated to be 9,84,453 million tonnes by end of 2003. The USA had the largest share of the global reserve (25.4%) followed by Russia (15.9%), China (11.6%). India was 4th in the list with 8.6%.


Oil

The global proven oil reserve was estimated to be 1147 billion barrels by the end of 2003. Saudi Arabia had the largest share of the reserve with almost 23%. (One barrel of oil is approximately 160 litres)



Gas

The global proven gas reserve was estimated to be 176 trillion cubic metres by the end of 2003. The Russian Federation had the largest share of the reserve with almost 27%.


Global Primary Energy Consumption

World primary energy consumption fell to 556.63 exa-joules in 2020. The coronavirus pandemic and its impact on transportation fuel demand and overall economic performance resulted in primary energy consumption declining to 2016 levels. The Figure shows in 2019 what proportions the sources mentioned above contributed to this global figure.



Energy distribution between developed and developing countries

Although 80 % of the world's population lives in developing countries (a four-fold population increase in the past 25 years), their energy consumption amounts to only 40 % of the world total energy consumption. The high standards of living in the developed countries are attributable to high energy consumption levels. 

 Also, the rapid population growth in the developing countries has kept the per capita energy consumption low compared with that of highly industrialized developed countries. The world average energy consumption per person is equivalent to 2.2 tones of coal. In industrialized countries, people use four to five times more than the world average and nine times more than the average for the developing countries. An American uses 32 times more commercial energy than an Indian.


Indian Energy Scenario

Coal dominates the energy mix in India, contributing to 55% of the total primary energy production. Over the years, there has been a marked increase in the share of natural gas in primary energy production from 10% in 1994 to 13% in 1999. There has been a decline in the share of oil in primary energy production from 20% to 17% during the same period.

Energy Supply---Coal

India has huge coal reserves, at least 84,396 million tones of proven recoverable reserves (at the end of 2003). These amounts to almost 8.6% of the world reserves and it may last for about 230 years at the current Reserve to Production (R/P) ratio. In contrast, the world's proven coal reserves are expected to last only for 192 years at the current R/P ratio.

Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio

If the reserves remaining at the end of the year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that the remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that level.

India is the fourth-largest producer of coal and lignite in the world. Coal production is concentrated in these states (Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Jharkhand, and West Bengal).

Oil Supply

Oil accounts for about 36 % of India’s total energy consumption. India today is one of the top ten oil-guzzling nations in the world and will soon overtake Korea as the third-largest consumer of oil in Asia after China and Japan. The country's annual crude oil production is peaked at about 32 million tonnes as against the current oil consumption by end of 2007 is expected to reach 136 million tonnes (MT), of which domestic production will be only 34 MT. India will have to pay an oil bill of roughly $50 billion, assuming a weighted average price of $50 per barrel of crude. 

In 2003-04, against total export of $64 billion, oil imports accounted for $21 billion. India imports 70% of its crude needs mainly from Gulf nations. The majority of India's roughly 5.4 billion barrels in oil reserves are located in Bombay High, upper Assam, Cambay, Krishna-Godavari. In terms of sector-wise petroleum product consumption, transport accounts for 42% followed by domestic and industry with 24% and 24% respectively. India spent more than Rs.1,10,000 crore on oil imports at the end of 2004.

Natural Gas Supply

Natural gas accounts for about 8.9 per cent of energy consumption in the country. The current demand for natural gas is about 96 million cubic metres per day (mcmd) as against the availability of 67 mcmd. By 2007, the demand is expected to be around 200 mcmd. Natural gas reserves are estimated at 660 billion cubic meters.

Electrical Energy Supply

The all India installed capacity of electric power generating stations under utilities was 1,12,581 MW as of 31st May 2004, consisting of 28,860 MW- hydro, 77,931 MW- thermal and 2,720 MW- nuclear and 1,869 MW- wind (Ministry of Power).

Nuclear Power Supply

Nuclear Power contributes to about 2.4 per cent of electricity generated in India. India has ten nuclear power reactors at five nuclear power stations producing electricity. More nuclear reactors have also been approved for construction. Hydro Power Supply India is endowed with a vast and viable hydro potential for power generation of which only 15% has been harnessed so far. The share of hydropower in the country's total generated units have steadily decreased and it presently stands at 25% as of 31st May 2004. It is assessed that exploitable potential at 60% load factor is 84,000 MW. Final Energy Consumption Final energy consumption is the actual energy demand at the user end. This is the difference between primary energy consumption and the losses that take place in transport, transmission & distribution and refinement.


Sector Wise Energy Consumption in India

The major commercial energy-consuming sectors in the country are classified. As seen from the figure, the industry remains the biggest consumer of commercial energy and its share in the overall consumption is 40%.



Energy Needs of Growing Economy

Economic growth is desirable for developing countries, and energy is essential for economic growth. However, the relationship between economic growth and increased energy demand is not always a straightforward linear one. For example, under present conditions, a 6% increase in India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would impose an increased demand of 9 % on its energy sector. 

In this context, the ratio of energy demand to GDP is a useful indicator. A high ratio reflects energy dependence and a strong influence of energy on GDP growth. The developed countries, by focusing on energy efficiency and lower energy-intensive routes, maintain their energy to GDP ratios at values of less than 1. The ratios for developing countries are much higher.

India's Energy Needs

India's oil demand is seen rising by rising by 74 per cent to 8.7 million barrels per day by 2040 under the existing policies scenario. The natural gas requirement is projected to more than triple to 201 billion cubic meters and coal demand is seen rising to 772 million tonnes in 2040 from the current 590.


Energy Intensity

Energy intensity is energy consumption per unit of GDP. Energy intensity indicates the development stage of the country. India's energy intensity is 3.7 times of Japan, 1.55 times of the USA, 1.47 times of Asia and 1.5 times of the World average.

Long Term Energy Scenario for India

Coal

Coal is the predominant energy source for power production in India, generating approximately 70% of total domestic electricity. Energy demand in India is expected to increase over the next 10- 15 years; although new oil and gas plants are planned, coal is expected to remain the dominant fuel for power generation. Despite significant increases in total installed capacity during the last decade, the gap between electricity supply and demand continues to increase. The resulting shortfall has harmed industrial output and economic growth. However, to meet expected future demand, indigenous coal production will have to be greatly expanded. 

Production currently stands at around 290 million tonnes per year, but coal demand is expected to more than double by 2010. Indian coal is typical of poor quality and as such requires to be beneficiated to improve the quality; Coal imports will also need to increase dramatically to satisfy industrial and power generation requirements.

Oil

Oil India's demand for petroleum products is likely to rise from 97.7 million tonnes in 2001-02 to around 139.95 million tonnes in 2006-07, according to projections of the Tenth Five-Year Plan. The plan document puts the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) at 3.6 % during the plan period. Domestic crude oil production is likely to rise marginally from 32.03 million tonnes in2001-02 to 33.97 million tonnes by the end of the 10th plan period (2006-07). 

India's self-sufficiency in oil has consistently declined from 60% in the 50s to 30% currently. The same is expected to go down to 8% by 2020. As shown in figure 1.8, around 92% of India's total oil demand by 2020 has to be met by imports.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas India's natural gas production is likely to rise from 86.56 million cmpd in 2002-03 to 103.08 million cmpd in 2006-07. It is mainly based on the strength of a more than doubling of production by private operators to 38.25 mm cmpd.

Electricity

Electricity India currently has a peak demand shortage of around 14% and an energy deficit of 8.4%. Keeping this in view and to maintain a GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 8% to 10%, the Government of India has very prudently set a target of 215,804 MW power generation capacity by March 2012 from the level of 100,010 MW as of March 2001, that is a capacity addition of 115,794 MW in the next 11 years. In the area of nuclear power, the objective is to achieve 20,000 MW of nuclear generation capacity by the year 2020.

Energy Pricing in India

The price of energy does not reflect the true cost to society. The basic assumption underlying the efficiency of market place does not hold in our economy, since energy prices are undervalued and energy wastages are not taken seriously. Pricing practices in India like many other developing countries are influenced by political, social and economic compulsions at the state and central level. More often than not, this has been the foundation for energy sector policies in India. 

The Indian energy sector offers many examples of cross-subsidies e.g., diesel, LPG and kerosene being subsidized by petrol, petroleum products for industrial usage and industrial, and commercial consumers of electricity subsidizing the agricultural and domestic consumers.

Coal

Coal Grade wise basic price of coal at the pithead excluding statutory levies for run-of-mine (ROM) coal is fixed by Coal India Ltd from time to time. The pithead price of coal in India compares favourably with the price of imported coal. Despite this, industries still import coal due to its higher calorific value and low ash content.

Oil

Oil As part of the energy sector reforms, the government has attempted to bring prices for many of the petroleum products (naphtha, furnace oil, LSHS, LDO and bitumen) in line with international prices. The most important achievement has been the linking of diesel prices to international prices and a reduction in subsidy. However, LPG and kerosene, consumed mainly by domestic sectors, continue to be heavily subsidized. Subsidies and cross-subsidies have resulted in serious distortions in prices, as they do not reflect economic costs in many cases.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas The government has been the sole authority for fixing the price of natural gas in the country. It has also been taking decisions on the allocation of gas to various competing consumers. The gas prices vary from Rs 5 to Rs.15 per cubic meter.

Electricity

Electricity tariffs in India are structured in a relatively simple manner. While high tension consumers are charged based on both demand (kVA) and energy (kWh), the low-tension (LT) consumer pays only for the energy consumed (kWh) as per the tariff system in most of the electricity boards. The price per kWh varies significantly across states as well as customer segments within a State. Tariffs in India have been modified to consider the time of usage and voltage level of supply. 

In addition to the base tariffs, some State Electricity Boards have additional recovery from customers in form of fuel surcharges, electricity duties and taxes. For example, for an industrial consumer, the demand charges may vary from Rs. 150 to Rs. 300 per kVA, whereas the energy charges may vary anywhere between Rs. 2 to Rs. 5 per kWh. As for the tariff adjustment mechanism, even when some States have regulatory commissions for tariff review, the decisions to effect changes are still political and there is no automatic adjustment mechanism, which can ensure recovery of costs for the electricity boards.

 Energy and Environment

The usage of energy resources in an industry leads to environmental damages by polluting the atmosphere. A few examples of air pollution are sulphur dioxide (SO2 ), nitrous oxide (NOX) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from boilers and furnaces, Chlorofluro carbons (CFC) emissions from refrigerant use, etc. In chemical and fertilizers industries, toxic gases are released. Cement plants and power plants spew out particulate matter. Typical inputs, outputs, and emissions for a typical industrial process are shown in Figure.

Air Pollution

A variety of air pollutants have known or suspected harmful effects on human health and the environment. These air pollutants are the products of combustion from fossil fuel use. Air pollutants from these sources may not only create problems near to these sources but also can cause problems far away. Air pollutants can travel long distances, chemically react in the atmosphere to produce secondary pollutants such as acid rain or ozone.


Evolutionary Trends in Pollution Problems

In both developed and rapidly industrializing countries, the major historic air pollution problem has typically been high levels of smoke and SO2 arising from the combustion of sulphur-containing fossil fuels such as coal for domestic and industrial purposes. Smogs resulting from the combined effects of black smoke, sulphate / acid aerosol and fog have been seen in European cities until a few decades ago and still occur in many cities in the developing world. 

In developed countries, this problem has significantly reduced over In recent decades as a result of changing fuel-use patterns; the increasing use of cleaner fuels such as natural gas, and the implementation of effective smoke and emission control policies. In both developed and developing countries, the major threat to clean air is now posed by traffic emissions. Petrol- and diesel engine motor vehicles emit a wide variety of pollutants, principally carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulates, which have an increasing impact on urban air quality.

In addition, photochemical reactions resulting from the action of sunlight on NO2 and VOCs from vehicles leads to the formation of ozone, a secondary long-range pollutant, which impacts rural areas often far from the original emission site. Acid rain is another long-range pollutant influenced by vehicle NOx emissions. Industrial and domestic pollutant sources, together with their impact on air quality, tend to be steady-state or improving over time. 

However, traffic pollution problems are worsening worldwide. The problem may be particularly severe in developing countries with dramatically increasing vehicle population, infrastructural limitations, poor engine/emission control technologies and limited provision for maintenance or vehicle regulation. The principal pollutants produced by industrial, domestic and traffic sources are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, ozone, hydrocarbons, benzene, 1,3- butadiene, toxic organic micropollutants, lead and heavy metals. A brief introduction to the principal pollutants are as follows:


Sulphur dioxide

Sulphur dioxide is a corrosive acid gas, which combines with water vapour in the atmosphere to produce acid rain. Both wet and dry deposition have been implicated in the damage and destruction of vegetation and the degradation of soils, building materials and watercourses. SO2 in ambient air is also associated with asthma and chronic bronchitis. The principal source of this gas is power stations and industries burning fossil fuels, which contain sulphur.

Health effects
Sulfur dioxide affects the respiratory system, particularly lung function, and can irritate the eyes. Sulfur dioxide irritates the respiratory tract and increases the risk of tract infections. It causes coughing, mucus secretion and aggravates conditions such as asthma and chronic bronchitis.

Nitrogen oxides

Nitrogen oxides are formed during high-temperature combustion processes from the oxidation of nitrogen in the air or fuel. The principal source of nitrogen oxides - nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), collectively known as NOx is road traffic. NO and NO2 concentrations are greatest in urban areas where traffic is heaviest. 

Other important sources are power stations and industrial processes. Nitrogen oxides are released into the atmosphere mainly in the form of NO, which is then readily oxidized to NO2 by reaction with ozone. Elevated levels of NOx occur in urban environments under stable meteorological conditions when the air mass is unable to disperse. 

Health effects   

Nitrogen dioxide has a variety of environmental and health impacts. It irritates the respiratory system and may worsen asthma and increase susceptibility to infections. In the presence of sunlight, it reacts with hydrocarbons to produce photochemical pollutants such as ozone Nitrogen oxides combine with water vapour to form nitric acid. This nitric acid is in turn removed from the atmosphere by direct deposition to the ground, or transfer to aqueous droplets (e.g. cloud or rainwater), thereby contributing to acid deposition.

Acidification from SO2 and NOx  

Acidification of water bodies and soils, and the consequent impact on agriculture, forestry and fisheries are the result of the re-deposition of acidifying compounds resulting principally from the oxidation of primary SO2 and NO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Deposition may be by either wet or dry processes, and acid deposition studies often need to examine both of these acidification routes.

Airborne particulate matter varies widely in its physical and chemical composition, source and particle size. PM10 particles (the fraction of particulates in the air of very small size (<10um) are of major current concern, as they are small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and so potentially pose significant health risks. In addition, they may carry surface-absorbed carcinogenic compounds into the lungs. Larger particles, combustion, where transport of hot exhaust vapour into a cooler exhaust pipe can lead to spontaneous nucleation of "carbon" particles before emission. 

Secondary particles are typically formed when low volatility products are generated in the atmosphere, for example, the oxidation of sulphur dioxide to sulphuric acid. The atmospheric lifetime of particulate matter is strongly related to particle size but maybe as long as 10 days for particles of about 1mm in diameter

Concern about the potential health impacts of PM10 has increased very rapidly over recent years. Increasingly, attention has been turning towards monitoring of the smaller particle fraction PM2.5 capable of penetrating deepest into the lungs or to even smaller size fractions or total particle numbers.


Carbon monoxide (CO)

Carbon monoxide (CO) is a toxic gas, which is emitted into the atmosphere as a result of combustion processes, and from the oxidation of hydrocarbons and other organic compounds. In urban areas, CO is produced almost entirely (90%) from road traffic emissions. CO at levels found in ambient air may reduce the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood. It survives in the atmosphere for approximately 1 month and finally gets oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2 ).


Health effects

Carbon monoxide symptoms mimic the flu: headaches, fatigue, nausea, dizziness, confusion, and irritability. Continued exposure can lead to vomiting, loss of consciousness, brain damage, heart irregularity, breathing difficulties, muscle weakness, abortions and even death.

Ground-level ozone (O3)

Ground-level ozone (O3) unlike other primary pollutants mentioned above, is not emitted directly into the atmosphere but is a secondary pollutant produced by the reaction between nitrogen dioxide (NO2), hydrocarbons and sunlight. 

Ozone can irritate the eyes and air passages causing breathing difficulties and may increase susceptibility to infection. It is a highly reactive chemical, capable of attacking surfaces, fabrics and rubber materials. Ozone is also toxic to some crops, vegetation and trees.

Whereas nitrogen dioxide (NO2) participates in the formation of ozone, nitrogen oxide (NO) destroys ozone to form oxygen (O2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). For this reason, ozone levels are not as high in urban areas (where high levels of NO are emitted from vehicles) as in rural areas. As the nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons are transported out of urban areas, the ozone-destroying NO is oxidized to NO2, which participates in ozone formation.


Health effects

Breathing ground-level ozone can trigger a variety of health problems including chest pain, coughing, throat irritation, and congestion. It can worsen bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. Ozone also can reduce lung function and inflame the lining of the lungs. Repeated exposure may permanently scar lung tissue.

Hydrocarbons

There are two main groups of hydrocarbons of concern: volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). VOCs are released in vehicle exhaust gases either as unburned fuels or as combustion products and are also emitted by the evaporation of solvents and motor fuels. Benzene and 1,3-butadiene are of particular concern, as they are known carcinogens. Other VOCs are important because of the role they play in the photochemical formation of ozone in the atmosphere.


Benzene

Benzene is an aromatic VOC, which is a minor constituent of petrol (about 2% by volume). The main sources of benzene in the atmosphere are the distribution and combustion of petrol. Of these, combustion by petrol vehicles is the single biggest source (70% of total emissions) whilst the refining, distribution and evaporation of petrol from vehicles account for approximately a further 10% of total emissions. Benzene is emitted in vehicle exhaust not only as unburnt fuel but also as a product of the decomposition of other aromatic compounds. Benzene is a known human carcinogen.


Health effects

Benzene causes harmful effects on the bone marrow and can cause a decrease in red blood cells, leading to anaemia. It can also cause excessive bleeding and can affect the immune system, increasing the chance of infection.

1,3-Butadiene

1,3-butadiene, like benzene, is a VOC is emitted into the atmosphere principally from fuel combustion of petrol and diesel vehicles. Unlike benzene, however, it is not a constituent of the fuel but is produced by the combustion of olefins. 

1,3-butadiene is also an important chemical in certain industrial processes, particularly the manufacture of synthetic rubber. It is handled in bulk at a small number of industrial locations. Other than in the vicinity of such locations, the dominant source of 1,3- butadiene in the atmosphere is the motor vehicles. 1,3 Butadiene is also a known, potent, human carcinogen.


Health effects

Acute high exposures may cause damage to the central nervous system or cause symptoms such as distorted blurred vision, vertigo, general tiredness, decreased blood pressure, headache, nausea, decreased pulse rate, and fainting. Chronic effects caused by exposure to 1,3-butadiene are controversial.

TOMPs (Toxic Organic Micropollutants)

TOMPs (Toxic Organic Micropollutants) is produced by the incomplete combustion of fuels. They comprise a complex range of chemicals some of which, although they are emitted in very small quantities, are highly toxic or and carcinogenic. Compounds in this category include: 

  • PAHs (Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons)
  • PCBs (Polychlorinated Biphenyls)
  • Dioxins · Furans

Heavy Metals and Lead

Particulate metals in air result from activities such as fossil fuel combustion (including vehicles), metal processing industries and waste incineration. There are currently no emission standards for metals other than lead. 

Lead is a cumulative poison to the central nervous system, particularly detrimental to the mental development of children. Lead is the most widely used non-ferrous metal and has a large number of industrial applications. Its single largest industrial use worldwide is in the manufacture of batteries and it is also used in paints, glazes, alloys, radiation shielding, tank lining and piping. 

As tetraethyl lead, it has been used for many years as an additive in petrol; with the increasing use of unleaded petrol, however, emissions and concentrations in the air have reduced steadily in recent years.


Health effects

Heavy metal toxicity can have several health effects on the body. Heavy metals can damage and alter the functioning of organs such as the brain, kidney, lungs, liver, and blood. Heavy metal toxicity can either be acute or chronic effects.

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